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fourth
  Identify the Next Trend,
And Get in on It Early

 
 
 

Executives who foresaw the dot-com era and got in early boosted their careers by nailing down top executives posts and made financial killings. Well, at least those who knew when to get out. For them, being in the right place at the right time paid off.

"Executives who boost their careers the most are those who spot new trends or growth sectors early," says Sue Shipley, a partner at executive search firm Odgers Ray and Berndtson in London.

And one of these days, another big trend with huge potential will emerge -- maybe nanotechnology, bioscience/biotechnology or interactive digital technology. But if you can't wait that long, or those aren't your specialities, don't despair. These days, recruitment experts such as Ms. Shipley are advising ambitious executives to look, at least for now, in existing areas with fewer moral and regulatory hurdles. "Our advice is to look for new niche and realistic opportunities closer to home, either in an already existing sector or within your own profession," says Ms. Shipley.

That's the approach international marketing manager Lawrence Holsworth, 39, took when he recently moved his career from information technology to "human capital," which he believes has yet to be fully exploited. As one of the original marketers who spotted and joined the dot-com trend early, he's willing to take another risk. The Internet, he observes, "started with boffins in the backroom, but it wasn't until the more commercial-minded marketers joined in that it really took off."

He used the same process to identify what he considers to be the next big thing -- " 'human capital' and soft issues. Executives want to do something more fulfilling with a more caring employer. They are looking for stability, trust and opportunities for development." So last year he joined OPP, a business-psychology consultancy based in Oxford, England, where he's helping companies put the people side of business first.

While niche trends are hard to spot, especially during an economic recession, "they can be found," says Steve Huxham, chairman of The Recruitment Society, a London-based association for recruitment-advertising and consulting professionals. "It's about keeping your ear to the ground and gathering information from a variety of sources. Keep an eye on where venture capitalists and company directors are investing. In the information age, it's easier to find out what investment companies are doing by accessing market reports online from sites like Reuters or Bloomberg. Also keep an eye on relevant industry press in your sector to find out exactly where this money is being invested."

Trend Indicators

So what up-and-coming trends do recruiters and forecasters foresee? "If you pay attention to things like demographics, you can spot changing consumer habits that may affect your sector," says Ms. Shipley. "For example, as the population continues to age around the world, and people work longer, there'll be abundant opportunities in the health-care and residential-care sector, as well as demand for products and services that aren't yet developed."

Henry Armstrong, director of Chiumento Consulting, a career-management consultancy based in London, notes the convergence of information technology with such sectors as telecommunications and bioscience is producing new products and services that allow existing and new tasks to be performed more efficiently. "For example, biofarmers come up with faster ways of producing and evaluating drugs so they can market them quicker," he says.

Craig Robinson, director of RightCoutts, a global HR consultancy specializing in career-transition services, believes that consolidation is another trend that will impact every job. Many European firms are consolidating or converging with other sectors to improve distribution channels so they can reach more customers with more services, he says. Banks, insurance firms and building societies are merging to offer products ranging from mortgages to insurance under one roof. And energy companies are offering different types of supplies instead of just one. "There are massive change agendas happening in every sector, from telecoms to finance," says Mr. Robinson, who is based in New Castle, England.

How Well Do You Match?

Before pursuing work in a new area, assess whether your skills fit that area. "Ask...what can I bring to the table? To be truly successful, you must ensure that the trend you are about to embark on is aligned with your personal goals, ambitions and skills," advises Mr. Holsworth. "Don't make the mistakes of executive who rushed into dot-coms, without the skills to follow through, only to regret it later. Ask yourself, 'What demand is there for someone with my skills, and what gaps do I need to fill?' before jumping in."

To take advantage of new opportunities in the IT sector, figure out how new technology will impact your profession. "It's really about staying on top of any technical advancements in your profession," says Mr. Armstrong.

While traditional skills won't become defunct, more technical know-how will be required. For example, traditional marketers will need to acquire additional Web-related marketing skills. Doctors will need to have both medical and technical know-how to take advantage of new equipment being developed. "The simple act of networking with alumni groups or professional bodies or institutes will give you valuable clues on which direction markets or professions are going in and where the next developments will be," adds Mr. Armstrong. "You'll also learn what specialist knowledge or training you'll need."

Creating a Position

If you spot a trend that's suited to your skills, you still need to find a role for yourself. This means convincing an organization to invest in and develop the trend. You can either approach your existing employer or another firm that may seriously consider your idea. "Generally, companies aren't receptive to speculative approaches, but if you target a company carefully, then you can be successful," says Mr. Huxham. "Of course, the first hurdle is getting through the front door. A cover letter with a CV sent to the personnel/HR department won't get you noticed. For something like this, aim straight for the chief. Send him or her an e-mail or letter, briefly outlining your idea, and ask for the opportunity to meet up to discuss your business plan."

That's what sales executive Miles Richards did. Two years ago, while working for a UK publishing firm, the 29-year-old discovered no magazine existed to serve the growing millionaire's market. "A few years after the national lottery was introduced in the UK, I came across statistics that showed a huge rise in the country's rich folk. And after a bit more research, I discovered that there was no magazine that catered to them," says Mr. Richards.

He approached his existing employer with a business plan to launch a magazine for millionaires. "Because of a cash-flow problem, my boss declined. But that didn't stop me from pursuing the idea by approaching other investors and publishers. Last year, one publisher took the idea on, and I was taken on as joint managing director to launch the publication later this year," says Mr. Richards.

Mr. Richards advises executives with ideas about new trends to be able to illustrate demand for their concepts with concrete facts. "Be prepared to be challenged," he says. "Inevitably, I did receive a few knock-backs before someone finally sat up and took note. In this case, it took me about a year. But if you believe in your proposal, like I did, then keep at it. After all, nothing ventured, nothing gained."

-- Ms. Sappal, former editor of Globalhr, is a free-lance journalist specializing in recruitment, human-resources and international management issues.


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