Economist Robert Hall has been puzzling over a thorny question for
nearly a year: What do you call an economy that has started expanding again
but keeps destroying jobs?
Mr. Hall heads a committee at the National Bureau of Economic Research,
an academic group in Cambridge, Mass., that declares when U.S. recessions
begin and end. In May of last year, Mr. Hall and his colleagues believed
the latest recession might be over. Consumers were spending more and
economic output was rising. All that the committee members needed to see
was a few months of uninterrupted job growth to announce the end of the
recession. "It seemed like the timing was imminent," he says.
But Mr. Hall is still waiting. Instead of expanding employment, companies are
continuing to shed jobs at a furious pace. Since March 2001, when the recession
began, the U.S. economy has more than 2 million jobs. The total number of people
unemployed -- including discouraged workers who would prefer to work but have
stopped looking -- is about 9 million. And the
number of people who are working part time because they can't find
full-time work is 4.6 million, up 39% since 2001, according to the Bureau
of Labor Statistics.
In short, the U.S. is experiencing the most protracted job-market
downturn since the Great Depression. It has left behind a remarkably broad
swath of workers -- from young to old, and from high-school dropouts to the
highly educated -- even as the economy has started growing again.
Why is this happening? The labor market is in the midst of structural
change, with numerous industries, from manufacturers to brokerage firms and
airlines to hotels, adjusting to a new economic order after the boom of the
late 1990s. Intensifying competition from abroad, slow growth at home and a
relentless push for productivity are driving this change. What has
surprised economists is not so much how harsh the adjustment has been --
after all, the unemployment rate remains relatively low at 6.1% -- but how
long it is taking to play out and how broadbased it has become.
Erica Groshen, a labor economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of New
York, recently studied employment trends in 70 industries over the past 30
years. She found that the structural change is vast. "Before in a recession
you had a lot of companies giving people temporary layoffs, saying, 'We'll
call you back when we need you,' " she says. "That is not what firms
do anymore."
During recessions in the 1970s and 1980s, about half of all jobs were in
industries that tended to go through cyclical swings, Ms. Groshen says --
meaning laid-off workers would be called back. The other half experienced
structural changes -- meaning jobs that were eliminated were never meant to
come back. Ms. Groshen says this started to change in the 1990 recession
and has intensified in this downturn. Today, she says, 75% of jobs are in
industries going through structural change.
Payrolls in the electronics sector, and for producers of industrial
equipment, have declined for 28 straight months. In communications,
payrolls have fallen for 24 months. In the securities and airline
industries, they have fallen in 16 of the past 24 months.
In some ways, this is the downside of a productivity boom that created
much optimism about the economy during the 1990s. Productivity growth means
that companies are squeezing more output from existing workers. Over the
long run, most economists agree productivity growth is good for workers,
because it tends to lead to higher wages. But in the short run, it is
creating a problem. Worker productivity has been growing faster than the
overall economy. That has allowed corporate executives to meet small
increases in demand while still eliminating jobs.
"You end up with a jobless recovery," says Jared Bernstein, a labor
economist with the Economic Policy Institute, a left-leaning think tank in
Washington. "It is indistinguishable from recession for many working
families."
A common definition for a recession is two consecutive quarters of
contracting gross domestic product. The nation's GDP -- the broadest
measure of economic output -- has expanded at an average annual rate of
2.7% since the fourth quarter of 2001. During the same period, the
productivity of the nation's work force -- which is defined as its output
per hour of work -- has expanded at a much faster rate of 4.2%. While
worker productivity often increases in the early stages of a recovery, this
time the mismatch between productivity and overall economic growth is
unprecedented.
At the beginning of eight recoveries between 1948 and 1982, GDP grew
faster than productivity. In those cases, companies had to add workers to
meet demand for their goods and services. During the recovery of 1991,
productivity grew slightly faster than output in the early stages, but the
difference wasn't as stark as it is now.
"If you want people to have jobs, your demand-side growth has to be much
stronger," says Harry Holzer, a labor economist at Georgetown University.
The nation would need a 3.5% growth rate in GDP for the unemployment rate
not to get worse, he says, but "3.5% is looking optimistic for this year.
This might be quite a protracted downturn."
Permanent job losses are also the result of the competition created by
globalization, which has forced companies to cut positions in the U.S. and
move them to places such as Mexico, China or India, where labor is much
cheaper. "Before the 1991 recession, most people got their old jobs back,"
says Robert Reich, former Labor Department Secretary and now a professor of
economic and social issues at Brandeis University. "After 1991, most people
didn't get their old jobs back. Those jobs went abroad, or they were
automated out of existence."
On April 15, A.O.
Smith Corp., a Milwaukee-based producer of electric motors,
announced that its net earnings rose 13% in the first three months of the
year from a year earlier, to $13.7 million. A sign of economic recovery?
Maybe. But five days earlier, the company told employees at its plant in
McMinnville, Tenn., that it was eliminating 300 jobs there and moving
production of motors for air-conditioning and ventilation systems to
Juarez, Mexico. "The reason we're doing this is to improve our cost
position," said Ed O'Connor, vice president of public affairs. "We have got
to continue to be competitive."
These changes help to create a remarkable degree of dynamism in the
economy, as workers find their way out of shrinking industries and into
ones where jobs are available. Terri Brooks, 42 years old, and her
daughter, Michelle Stauffer, 23, are making just such a shift. Both are
production workers at a Maytag Corp. refrigeration plant
in Galesberg, Ill. Stung by competition from China and Korea, Maytag is
shutting the plant and moving its operations to Mexico. Ms. Stauffer, who
works the night shift, will lose her job in July; Ms. Brooks will lose hers
next year. So mother and daughter are taking classes part time at nearby
Carl Sandberg College, where Ms. Brooks is training to be a medical
secretary and her daughter is signed up to become a dental hygienist.
"I figure there will always be a job in the medical field," says Ms.
Brooks.
In addition to being protracted, this downturn has also become an equal
opportunity recession. In the past, recessions tended to have the greatest
ferocity for less-educated workers and younger workers. But this downturn
-- because it has been spread out across so many industries -- has created
a broader class of job-market casualties. Age is no longer an important
distinction. And well-educated workers, used to being sheltered in a slump,
have been hit hard.
In the last three years, the unemployment rate for college graduates
over 25, who enjoyed the lion's share of the economy's gains during the
1980s and 1990s, has risen by 1.6 percentage points, not much less than the
2.1-percentage-point increase for high-school dropouts. Many educated
workers were concentrated in industries hit hardest by the downturn, such
as technology and finance. The unemployment rate for computer scientists
and mathematicians rose from 0.7% in February 1998 to about 6% at the end
of 2002, according to research by the Economic Policy Institute.
Educated workers seem especially prone to bouts of long-term
unemployment in this downturn. Of the 1.9 million workers who have been
unemployed for six months or more, one in five is a former executive,
professional or manager, according to a study by the National Employment
Law Project, a nonprofit advocacy group for the unemployed. Because these
workers have specific, often technical, skills it sometimes takes them
longer to find a job that matches those skills.
On the surface, the job market might not look all that bad. At 6.1%, the
unemployment rate is only a little above its average of 5.6% during the
past 55 years. In 1982, in contrast, it reached 10.8%. In 1992, it reached
7.8%. But for the 9 million Americans who are now unemployed, the
protracted nature of this downturn means it has been excruciatingly
difficult to get work again. For some, job searches are dragging on long
after their unemployment benefits have expired and they have plowed through
their savings. In the last year, nearly 2.8 million people have exhausted
unemployment benefits.
Many others are scrambling in ways that don't get picked up in
unemployment statistics. They're taking lower-paying jobs, going back to
school to get new skills, or becoming independent consultants and picking
up small projects when they can. "A lot of people are losing ground
economically," says Mr. Reich.
One of those people is Wanda Whitson, a 47-year-old college graduate. In
December 2001, she lost her job as a public-relations manager with
Key3Media Group Inc., which produces technology trade shows. Ms. Whitson
earned $65,000 and traveled around the country. Eighteen months later, she
hasn't been able to find full-time work. To make ends meet, she's working
as a salesperson at a Crate & Barrel store in Boston, earning about $7
an hour. She has also been doing temp work, ranging from checking coats at
a local book fair to working as an administrative assistant for a finance
company. But it isn't enough to cover all of her expenses. "It's a little
scary. I'm down to the point where in three or four months, if something
doesn't come along, I don't know what I'm going to do," she says.
Economists have a term for the wrenching adjustments to today's economy:
"creative destruction." The term was coined by an Austrian-American
economist named Joseph Schumpeter after the Great Depression ended. In a
capitalist economy, Mr. Schumpeter argued, weak industries and companies
had to be destroyed in order for thriving ones to take root. He called it a
"perennial gale of creative destruction."
While manufacturing has shed 1.7 million jobs in the past two years, the
health-care sector has added 522,000. The education field has added another
190,000. Mr. Reich, the former Labor Secretary, says this kind of growth
leaves him feeling that the trends in the job market will ultimately prove
to be positive events. "The labor market is extremely flexible," he says.
"People are adapting."
But the shifts put many workers on an especially difficult journey. One
problem with today's long bouts of unemployment is that the longer an
individual stays out of work, the more likely he or she is to take a new
job at a much lower salary. Another big concern is finding a job that
provides health insurance. Federal law requires employers to allow
dismissed workers to stay on their health plans for about 18 months. But
for many people, long-term unemployment means that coverage is running
out.
These trends have implications for policy makers, too. Workers typically
receive 26 weeks of state unemployment benefits after they are laid off.
The system was set up as part of the Social Security Act in 1935. Now,
workers can also receive an additional 13 weeks of federal aid. But because
many people are experiencing exceptionally long spells looking for work,
millions are running through all of their unemployment insurance before
they find a new job. According to Labor Department statistics, 43% of those
who sign up for insurance exhaust their 26-week benefits, the highest rate
in at least 30 years.
One solution would be to offer unemployment insurance for a longer
period of time. But economists are reluctant to propose that because they
fear it would reduce the incentive for unemployed people to search for
work. Germany, for instance, offers unemployment insurance for 12 to 32
months and other assistance can continue indefinitely; its unemployment
rate is 10.7%.
At the National Bureau for Economic Research, the enduring job-market
weakness has sparked a debate about some very basic economic questions.
Like this one: How do you know when a recession ends? Some members,
including Robert Gordon, a Northwestern University professor and an expert
on productivity trends, believe the recession actually ended a long time
ago, because overall output, as measured by indicators such as gross
domestic product and national income, have been rising since late 2001.
"There clearly was a trough," says Mr. Gordon.
But Mr. Hall, a Stanford University professor, isn't so sure. "I don't
want to say that a recession is over if more and more people are unemployed
and job growth is negative," he says. For now, he says, he prefers to wait
a little longer.