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fourth
  HR Managers Forecast
An Upbeat Hiring Outlook

 
 
 

It's been a buyers' market in employment, but now the buyers seem to be in the mood to shop.

Interviews with human-resources managers suggest that the hiring outlook is turning up. Most of the HR managers surveyed informally at the Society for Human Resource Management annual conference in Orlando, Fla., say their organizations plan to add staff in the next two quarters. While the sampling is anecdotal -- and recent unemployment-rate data don't bear out the upbeat forecast -- its results appear to reflect an attitude shift at U.S. employers.

The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 6.4% in June from 6.1% in May, as payrolls fell by 30,000 jobs, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The jobless rate among managers and professionals climbed one-half of a percentage point to 3.5%. Among those in sales and office occupations, the unemployment rate jumped to 6.3% from 5.7% a month earlier.

The rise in the unemployment rate may reflect job seekers' anticipation of an economic recovery, according to the Employment Policy Foundation, a Washington, D.C.-based organization. The civilian labor force grew by 611,000 workers, offsetting an increase of 251,000 jobs in total employment.

Employment in the temporary-help industry, often cited as a leading indicator of the labor market, rose by 38,000 in June, following a gain of 44,000 in May, according to the BLS.

Formal surveys on the hiring outlook have been mixed. A recent survey from Grant Thornton LLP, an accounting firm based in Chicago, shows that fewer executives from middle-market companies -- those with between $100 million and $2.5 billion in revenues -- expect to increase hiring in the next six months (41% respondents expect a boost, compared to 50% in November).

Meanwhile, a survey of 230 recruiters by ExecuNet, an executive career-management and recruiting-resource center, shows that search professionals are expecting the executive-job market to improve in the third quarter. More than half (55%) of respondents say that their business improved over the past month. Forty percent are somewhat confident that this growth is likely to continue, and 26% are either confident or very confident that it will continue in the next three months. A month ago, only 14% of recruiters said they were confident or very confident.

Ramping Up

Jeff Kusulas, an employee-relations consultant at Washington Mutual Inc., is among HR managers reporting renewed hiring efforts. The 60,000-employee bank based in Seattle is adding staff in its mortgage-sales and operations departments after a hiring pause last year following several acquisitions, he says. WaMu plans to beef up its 2,500-member sales staff to 5,000 in the next two to three years. And, with the goal of developing the consumer-banking side of its business and becoming the No. 1 mortgage lender in the country, the bank plans to take its overall headcount to 80,000 in the next couple of years, says Mr. Kusulas.

Peopleclick Inc., albeit a much smaller firm with only 300 employees, likewise is on an impressive hiring spree for a company of its size. HR director Georgia Rothschild says the HR software and services company is interviewing candidates to fill 15 technology positions. And she expects hiring to continue through yearend. The plan is to add higher-skilled technology professionals to "upgrade the talent" of the five-year-old company. "We're now out of start-up mode," she explains.

Peopleclick is based in Raleigh, N.C., a hotbed of high-tech start-ups in boom times. Lately, though, qualified candidates have greatly outnumbered jobs. "Our area was hit hard," says Ms. Rothschild, adding the company has been "flooded with resumes. When we started up, it was hard to recruit. Now you do have a good choice."

Other HR pros noted applicants are more willing to consider less lucrative and lower-level jobs, thanks to the long downturn. Says Nel Rae Sanders, manager of HR in the U.S. for Gerling NCM, a credit-insurer based in Baltimore, Md., "Candidates are willing to settle, and they need a job, whereas, years ago, it wasn't as easy [to recruit]. I know a lot of people who are unemployed and are looking."

Gerling NCM is hiring, but plans are to recruit fewer new employees in the U.S. in 2003 than last year. Ms. Sanders says her division, which has over 100 on staff, hired 30 people in risk services in 2002 and expects to add only seven this year, though more may be recruited if turnover is brisk. It's a conservative estimate, she acknowledges. The company seeks applicants with financial and business degrees who can be trained for underwriter and account-manager roles. Gerling employs more than 2,000 globally.

After Restructuring, New Plans

Some HR managers say their companies are hiring after reorganizing and installing new senior management. Anice R. Prosser, senior vice president at Envision Credit Union, in Tallahassee, Fla., says her 200-employee organization has just completed a restructuring and is hiring to fill spots necessary to achieve long-term strategic goals. "We're moving into a sales culture" in order to compete with banks, she says. Last week, a vice president started in a newly created position in financial services to oversee the credit union's branches. Envision is looking to hire six entry-level customer-service professionals quickly and possibly more later in the year. These employees will be trained to fill jobs vacated due to attrition, thereby helping the organization "create a buffer" in its customer-service department instead of  hiring and training a new employee each time someone leaves. "It's a big switch," says Ms. Prosser.

Plano, Texas-based Rent-A-Center Inc., a chain of 2,500 stores of rent-to-own appliances, electronics, furniture and other home merchandise, is undertaking several staff changes initiated by new senior management, which took the helm in 2001. The company has more than 14,000 employees and is growing, says HR vice president Jennifer Wisdom. Between 600 and 800 recruits will be needed in the next year, mostly to fill entry-level customer-account handling roles, some new and some replacement. In fact, Ms. Wisdom says, 12 new employees were hired in human resources alone in the past year. Most recruiting is at the local store level, but the company is centralizing the function, expanding online recruiting, and evaluating  applicant-tracking systems.

"We're in the midst of a culture change to become more attractive to employees," says Ms. Wisdom. "The opportunity here is great." The company promotes from within; gives new hires a chance to advance quickly; and is developing new leadership-training programs.

The Tennessee Valley Authority is also hiring, but largely to replace employees who are retiring. "We call them just-in-time replacements," says James Boyles, manager of workforce planning for the TVA, where the age of the average employee is 47. In its next fiscal year, the TVA expects to hire between 200 and 400 new employees -- chemical, civil and electrical engineers -- after hiring 300 to 400 since Sept. 30, the end of its fiscal year. Most new employees have two- or four-year degrees and are from the Southeast.

"We like to grow our own, so to speak," says Mr. Boyles. "It's a market for us right now. We have plenty of students to choose from, and we get to pick," he says.

A Shift in Stance

Not every company of course is expanding just yet. ER Wayne Manufacturing Co. isn't planning to add employees presently, but HR manager George Koleas is optimistic about hiring nonetheless. Earlier this year, the Milwaukee auto-parts maker had sought voluntary layoffs in its shop. Now, he says, "we seem to be at an ending point where we had to be more restrained. We think we're on the verge of growing and are closely watching whether new auto-sales incentives are successful." He cautions, however, that inventories are still up 10%, and the company is waiting to see whether automakers will make adjustments that will cancel or delay contracts. "If not, there's an opportunity for moderate growth," he says. "Our best guess right now is that there will be a period of moderate growth."

Still, ER Wayne cautiously filled a couple of positions in the past two months. For example, an engineer was brought in from a temp agency to catch up on projects, and a couple of vacancies were filled. "But we took our time in filling them," Mr. Koleas says. The number of future hires will depend on the volume of contracts that are signed, he says.

An upturn in the job market can't happen too soon for Dennis Wierck. The 52-year-old HR generalist from St. Petersburg, Fla., had lost his job nearly three months ago and was volunteering at the SHRM conference. Mr. Wierck has 16 years' experience, most recently with a nonprofit social-services agency that cut his position in a management restructuring. He's been looking since "everywhere: newspapers, Internet and networking opportunities, such as this," he says, directing attendees outside an exhibit hall. Employers tell him that for every position they advertise they're receiving 100 to 120 resumes.

-- Ms. Lorber is the managing editor of CareerJournal.com.

Email your comments to cjeditor@dowjones.com.


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