U.S. workers saw surprisingly large increases in pay at the end
of 2004, according to a new report from the government that takes a
comprehensive look at employment and wage trends across 317 of the country's
largest counties.
The Labor Department report said weekly salaries rose an
average of 5.7% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier. The gain seemed to be
bolstered by commissions and end-of-year bonuses, which are included in the
counts.
The report showed wages are growing, from suburban areas like
Williamson County, near Austin, Texas, to big cities like New York. It also
helped clarify a muddled national picture on the state of worker pay. Economists
have been puzzled for months about why national income seems to be rising at a
healthy pace while measures of hourly wages are barely keeping up with
inflation.
The latest report lends weight to the argument that end-of-year
bonuses and commissions were a factor, economists say.
The statistics showed that weekly wages averaged $812
throughout the nation. Workers in Williamson saw the biggest increases in weekly
wages, with a 17.8% jump to $893 from a year earlier. Williamson County, the
home of Dell Inc., is benefiting from the recovery in the tech sector and from
robust single-family housing construction, according to Moody's Investors
Service.
The county of Rutherford, Tenn., near Nashville, saw employment
increase 8.9%, the biggest percentage employment gain in the period. Maricopa
County (which includes Phoenix) had the biggest actual gain in new jobs, 75,700
in December 2004 compared with a year earlier.
Dave Iaia, a regional economist with Global Insight, a Waltham,
Mass., forecasting firm, says job creation tended to be fastest in warm-weather
counties that attracted lots of new families, such as Florida, Arizona and
Nevada. Population expansion in those areas is promoting job growth in service
sectors such as education, health and tourism, he says.
Joseph Carson, an economist at Alliance Capital, said many of
the counties with large wage gains also had strong housing markets. "There could
have been a lot of commissions paid out on real-estate transactions and year-end
bonuses tied to those sales."
The largest declines in employment occurred in Wayne, Mich.,
where employment was down 12,600, and Allegheny, Pa., where employment was down
3,900. No county experienced year-over-year declines in average weekly wages,
although Kalamazoo, Mich., had the smallest increase in wages, at 0.5%, followed
by the 0.7% rise in Richmond, N.Y.
Separately, the Commerce Department said housing starts were
unchanged at a seasonally adjusted 2.004 million annual rate last month. Permits
for future building rose by 2.4% in June to a 2.111 million annual rate after
falling a revised 4% in May.
"We have to settle for housing demand that is torrid rather
than scalding," RBS Greenwich Capital Markets economist Stephen Stanley said.
"The bottom line is that the housing sector is still extremely strong."
Low financing costs and concern that lending rates might
escalate later this year are driving home-buying. According to Freddie Mac, the
average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage in June was 5.58%, the lowest monthly
level since March 2004's 5.45%. Rates have stayed low despite a year-long
campaign by the Federal Reserve to increase short-term borrowing costs.
The latest available government data show new-home sales rose
2.1% to a 1.271 million annual rate during May. The ratio of houses for sale to
houses sold was 4.2. With supplies lean and demand hot, prices for houses in the
U.S. have been rising, averaging $281,400 in May -- 8.2% above May 2004's
$206,400.
With demand still high, homebuilders remain optimistic about
the housing market. The National Association of Home Builders' index for sales
of new, single-family homes fell to 70 in July from a revised 72 in June. When
the index exceeds 50, the number of builders surveyed who expect good sales
outnumber those who expect poor sales.
Regionally, home construction last month rose 11.4% to
1,003,000 in the South after dropping 11.9% in May. Construction fell 0.5% to
185,000 in the Northeast, 12.1% to 335,000 in the Midwest, and 10.4% to 481,000
in the West.