Mortgage brokers, prepare your résumés. And while you are at
it, highlight any experience you've had in health care.
The reason: Housing, the biggest generator of jobs in the
current expansion, is running out of steam. As a result, tens of thousands of
Americans, from bankers to hardware-store clerks, are likely to find themselves
out of work over the next couple of years. For those who can transfer their
skills to other industries that are still growing, such as health care, it won't
be the end of the world.
"It's not going to be a big show-stopper, because there are
other areas of the economy that are picking up," says Brian Bethune, U.S.
economist at consulting firm Global Insight.
Few sectors can claim to have as much sway over the economy as
housing. Housing-related employment has accounted for about 23% of the 4.9
million jobs created since the nation's job market began to grow in late 2003,
according to Moody's Economy.com. That includes architects, contractors,
real-estate agents, brokers and bankers, as well as the host of others who
provide the industry with materials and services.
"There's never been a housing boom like this one in terms of
the reach, in terms of the range of industries affected," says Ethan Harris,
chief U.S. economist at Lehman Brothers in New York. "This is clearly
unprecedented."
Now, the boom is coming to an end. Total single-family-home
sales were running at an annualized rate of 7.1 million in April, down more than
6% from the June 2005 peak. Backlogs of unsold homes are rising, and price
increases are slowing.
Economists expect the slowdown to affect more than just
housing-related jobs: As stagnating house prices and higher interest rates limit
Americans' ability to use their homes as a source of cash, they are likely to
spend less money on consumer goods, meaning less work for all kinds of folks,
from assembly-line workers to shop assistants.
Signs of weakness in housing-related employment are already
appearing. Last week, KB Home, of Los Angeles, one of the nation's largest home
builders, said it had laid off about 7% of its 6,600 workers. Earlier, ACC
Capital Holdings Corp., the parent of mortgage lender Ameriquest Mortgage Co.,
announced plans to lay off 3,800 workers. And Washington Mutual said it would be
cutting 2,500 jobs related to its home-loan business.
"There's no question that the downturn in the mortgage business
has caused a lot of banks to cut jobs," says John Challenger, chief executive of
Chicago outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc.
From a macroeconomic perspective, the housing slowdown, and the
attendant slowing of job growth, could be just what the economy needs. If, as
some economists predict, the monthly average rate of growth in U.S. non-farm
payrolls falls and stays a bit below 130,000 -- from about 175,000 in the first
quarter -- that would help keep wages in check, relieving the inflationary
pressures that have worried Federal Reserve officials and, as a result, spooked
financial markets. "That's exactly what the Fed would like to see," says Mark
Zandi, chief economist at Economy.com.
No single sector of the economy has the potential to make up
for all the jobs likely to be lost in a housing slowdown. Still, some can
provide a cushion. All across the economy, companies are running up against the
limits of what they can get out of their current workers -- a situation
economists say will drive more hiring.
"As long as the economy is expanding, you have to add inputs
from somewhere, and labor is the easiest input to add," says David Greenlaw, an
economist at Morgan Stanley in New York.
Industries that have picked up the pace of hiring in recent
months include health care, finance (excluding housing-related finance),
education and nonresidential construction. Manufacturing, too, is benefiting
from increased capital investment in the U.S. and abroad: The sector has added
134,000 production jobs since September.
Not all of the new jobs will be a good fit for people forced
out of housing-related work. Immigrants who specialize in low-skill tasks could
be among the hardest hit. "The low-skilled or unskilled worker is going to be
displaced," says Global Insight's Mr. Bethune.
Still, some skills are transferable. Carpenters and
electricians, for example, can find jobs on commercial and public projects like
office buildings and schools. People who can find ways to improve companies'
productivity -- say, by making loan applications easier to fill out -- are
always in demand, says Andrew Wilkinson, a managing director in Los Angeles for
KForce Professional Staffing. He recently found jobs for a number of business
analysts laid off by Ameriquest. Their new employer: Kaiser Permanente, the
U.S.'s largest health plan.
"Those are the types of folks that our customers generally
struggle to find anywhere," he says. "We put them into health care, we put them
into biotech and we put them into other financial-services companies."